麦肯锡：AI代理为消费者和商家开创一个新时代

基于代理的商务—— 由代表我们行事的人工智能代理驱动的购物—— 代表了市场的巨大变化。 It drives us toward a world where AI is able to predict consumer needs, filter shopping options, negotiate deals, and execute transactions, all in alignment with human intent while acting independently through multi-step action chains powered by reasoning models.

这不仅仅是电子商务的演变。 It’s a reimagining of shopping itself, where the boundaries between platforms, services and experiences give way to an integrated, intent-driven process that delivers fast, frictionless results through a highly personalized consumer journey.

The stakes are high: According to research by McKinsey, by 2030, revenue from agent-based commerce in the U.S. B2C retail market alone may reach as high as $1 trillion, with global forecasts as high as $3 trillion to $5 trillion.

This trend will have the same broad impact as previous revolutions in web and mobile commerce, but it will likely move faster because agents will be able to make purchases along the same digital paths as humans, allowing them to “ride the tracks” laid by previous revolutions.

这为当今的商业生态系统带来了机遇和风险。 Enterprises, brands, retailers, marketplace platforms, logistics and business service providers, and payment participants of all types will need to adapt to the new paradigm and successfully navigate the challenges of trust, risk, and innovation.

From a technology perspective, this means mastering and deploying emerging integration-enabling technologies, such as Anthropic’s Model Context Protocol (MCP), Agent-to-Agent Agreement (A2A), Agent Payment Protocol (AP2), and Agent-based Commerce Protocol (ACP), which will usher in a new era of intelligent, autonomous agents.这也意味着身份管理和忠诚度计划的方法需要从根本上进行重组。聪明的组织已经在创建新的、对代理商友好的网站，以提供强大的代理商和消费者体验。

商业模式也必须改变，才能在代理驱动的经济中蓬勃发展。这意味着探索新的盈利策略、新的营销和客户参与方法。 For many intermediaries in today’s shopping journey, a key choice is whether to launch their own agents, and when and how to accommodate agent traffic.对于一些企业来说，这可能是一个生存问题。

代理商务需要从根本上重新思考价值的创造、获取和交付方式。快速适应的公司不仅将满足不断变化的消费者期望，还将重新定义其行业。当人工智能代理成为新的业务看门人时，那些犹豫不决的公司可能会落后。

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